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Sep 8

Convolutional Neural Networks on the HEALPix sphere: a pixel-based algorithm and its application to CMB data analysis

We describe a novel method for the application of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to fields defined on the sphere, using the HEALPix tessellation scheme. Specifically, We have developed a pixel-based approach to implement convolutional layers on the spherical surface, similarly to what is commonly done for CNNs in Euclidian space. The algorithm is fully integrable with existing libraries for NNs (e.g., PyTorch or TensorFlow). We present two applications: (i) recognition of handwritten digits projected on the sphere; (ii) estimation of cosmological parameter from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) simulated maps. We have built a simple NN architecture, consisting in four convolutional+pooling layers, and have used it for all the applications explored herein. For what concerns the handwritten digits, our CNN reaches an accuracy of about 95%, comparable with other existing spherical CNNs. For CMB applications, we have tested the CNN on the estimation of a "mock" parameter, defining the angular scale at which the power spectrum of a Gaussian field projected on the sphere peaks. We have estimated this parameter directly from maps, in several cases: temperature and polarization, presence of noise and partial sky coverage. In all the cases, the NN performances are comparable with those from standard spectrum-based bayesian methods. We demonstrate, for the first time, the capability of CNNs to extract information from polarization fields and to distinguish between E and B-modes. Lastly, we have applied our CNN to the estimation of the Thomson scattering optical depth at reionization (tau) from simulated CMB maps. Even without any specific optimization of the NN architecture, we reach an accuracy comparable with standard bayesian methods. This work represents a first step towards the exploitation of NNs in CMB parameter estimation and demonstrates the feasibility of our approach.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 14, 2019

FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale

FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed to respect spherical geometry and to accurately model the spatially correlated probabilistic nature of the problem, resulting in stable spectra and realistic dynamics across multiple scales. FourCastNet 3 delivers forecasting accuracy that surpasses leading conventional ensemble models and rivals the best diffusion-based methods, while producing forecasts 8 to 60 times faster than these approaches. In contrast to other ML approaches, FourCastNet 3 demonstrates excellent probabilistic calibration and retains realistic spectra, even at extended lead times of up to 60 days. All of these advances are realized using a purely convolutional neural network architecture tailored for spherical geometry. Scalable and efficient large-scale training on 1024 GPUs and more is enabled by a novel training paradigm for combined model- and data-parallelism, inspired by domain decomposition methods in classical numerical models. Additionally, FourCastNet 3 enables rapid inference on a single GPU, producing a 60-day global forecast at 0.25{\deg}, 6-hourly resolution in under 4 minutes. Its computational efficiency, medium-range probabilistic skill, spectral fidelity, and rollout stability at subseasonal timescales make it a strong candidate for improving meteorological forecasting and early warning systems through large ensemble predictions.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 16, 2025

Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Mesh

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix). In comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) machine learning (ML) weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times, its skill is only about one day behind both SOTA ML forecast models and the SOTA numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report several improvements in model design, including switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that successfully propagate weather patterns across the globe without requiring separate kernels for the polar and equatorial faces of the cube sphere. Without any loss of spectral power after the first two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 11, 2023

Flat-sky Angular Power Spectra Revisited

We revisit the flat-sky approximation for evaluating the angular power spectra of projected random fields by retaining information about the correlations along the line of sight. With broad, overlapping radial window functions, these line-of-sight correlations are suppressed and are ignored in the Limber approximation. However, retaining the correlations is important for narrow window functions or unequal-time spectra but introduces significant computational difficulties due to the highly oscillatory nature of the integrands involved. We deal with the integral over line-of-sight wave-modes in the flat-sky approximation analytically, using the FFTlog expansion of the 3D power spectrum. This results in an efficient computational method, which is a substantial improvement compared to any full-sky approaches. We apply our results to galaxy clustering (with and without redshift-space distortions), CMB lensing and galaxy lensing observables. For clustering, we find excellent agreement with the full-sky results on large (percent-level agreement) and intermediate or small (subpercent agreement) scales, dramatically out-performing the Limber approximation for both wide and narrow window functions, and in equal- and unequal-time cases. In the case of lensing, we show on the full sky that the angular power spectrum of the convergence can be very well approximated by projecting the 3D Laplacian (rather than the correct angular Laplacian) of the gravitational potential, even on large scales. Combining this approximation with our flat-sky techniques provides an efficient and accurate evaluation of the CMB lensing angular power spectrum on all scales.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 25, 2023

From Orbit to Ground: Generative City Photogrammetry from Extreme Off-Nadir Satellite Images

City-scale 3D reconstruction from satellite imagery presents the challenge of extreme viewpoint extrapolation, where our goal is to synthesize ground-level novel views from sparse orbital images with minimal parallax. This requires inferring nearly 90^circ viewpoint gaps from image sources with severely foreshortened facades and flawed textures, causing state-of-the-art reconstruction engines such as NeRF and 3DGS to fail. To address this problem, we propose two design choices tailored for city structures and satellite inputs. First, we model city geometry as a 2.5D height map, implemented as a Z-monotonic signed distance field (SDF) that matches urban building layouts from top-down viewpoints. This stabilizes geometry optimization under sparse, off-nadir satellite views and yields a watertight mesh with crisp roofs and clean, vertically extruded facades. Second, we paint the mesh appearance from satellite images via differentiable rendering techniques. While the satellite inputs may contain long-range, blurry captures, we further train a generative texture restoration network to enhance the appearance, recovering high-frequency, plausible texture details from degraded inputs. Our method's scalability and robustness are demonstrated through extensive experiments on large-scale urban reconstruction. For example, in our teaser figure, we reconstruct a 4,km^2 real-world region from only a few satellite images, achieving state-of-the-art performance in synthesizing photorealistic ground views. The resulting models are not only visually compelling but also serve as high-fidelity, application-ready assets for downstream tasks like urban planning and simulation. Project page can be found at https://pku-vcl-geometry.github.io/Orbit2Ground/.

  • 13 authors
·
Dec 8, 2025

FastNet: Improving the physical consistency of machine-learning weather prediction models through loss function design

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

  • 34 authors
·
Sep 21, 2025

Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

  • 25 authors
·
May 6

SatVision-TOA: A Geospatial Foundation Model for Coarse-Resolution All-Sky Remote Sensing Imagery

Foundation models have the potential to transform the landscape of remote sensing (RS) data analysis by enabling large computer vision models to be pre-trained on vast amounts of remote sensing data. These models can then be fine-tuned with small amounts of labeled training and applied to a variety of applications. Most existing foundation models are designed for high spatial resolution, cloud-free satellite imagery or photos, limiting their applicability in scenarios that require frequent temporal monitoring or broad spectral profiles. As a result, foundation models trained solely on cloud-free images have limited utility for applications that involve atmospheric variables or require atmospheric corrections. We introduce SatVision-TOA, a novel foundation model pre-trained on 14-band MODIS L1B Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiance imagery, addressing the need for models pre-trained to handle moderate- and coarse-resolution all-sky remote sensing data. The SatVision-TOA model is pre-trained using a Masked-Image-Modeling (MIM) framework and the SwinV2 architecture, and learns detailed contextual representations through self-supervised learning without the need for labels. It is a 3 billion parameter model that is trained on 100 million images. To our knowledge this is the largest foundation model trained solely on satellite RS imagery. Results show that SatVision-TOA achieves superior performance over baseline methods on downstream tasks such as 3D cloud retrieval. Notably, the model achieves a mean intersection over union (mIOU) of 0.46, a substantial improvement over the baseline mIOU of 0.22. Additionally, the rate of false negative results in the fine-tuning task were reduced by over 50% compared to the baseline. Our work advances pre-trained vision modeling for multispectral RS by learning from a variety of atmospheric and aerosol conditions to improve cloud and land surface monitoring.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 25, 2024

360-GS: Layout-guided Panoramic Gaussian Splatting For Indoor Roaming

3D Gaussian Splatting (3D-GS) has recently attracted great attention with real-time and photo-realistic renderings. This technique typically takes perspective images as input and optimizes a set of 3D elliptical Gaussians by splatting them onto the image planes, resulting in 2D Gaussians. However, applying 3D-GS to panoramic inputs presents challenges in effectively modeling the projection onto the spherical surface of {360^circ} images using 2D Gaussians. In practical applications, input panoramas are often sparse, leading to unreliable initialization of 3D Gaussians and subsequent degradation of 3D-GS quality. In addition, due to the under-constrained geometry of texture-less planes (e.g., walls and floors), 3D-GS struggles to model these flat regions with elliptical Gaussians, resulting in significant floaters in novel views. To address these issues, we propose 360-GS, a novel 360^{circ} Gaussian splatting for a limited set of panoramic inputs. Instead of splatting 3D Gaussians directly onto the spherical surface, 360-GS projects them onto the tangent plane of the unit sphere and then maps them to the spherical projections. This adaptation enables the representation of the projection using Gaussians. We guide the optimization of 360-GS by exploiting layout priors within panoramas, which are simple to obtain and contain strong structural information about the indoor scene. Our experimental results demonstrate that 360-GS allows panoramic rendering and outperforms state-of-the-art methods with fewer artifacts in novel view synthesis, thus providing immersive roaming in indoor scenarios.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 1, 2024

SpheRoPE: Zero-Shot Optimization-Free 360 Panorama Generation with Spherical RoPE

We present a zero-shot, training-free and optimization-free framework for generating 360 panoramic images and videos by directly injecting spherical priors into pre-trained diffusion transformers. Existing methods either rely on costly fine-tuning on scarce panoramic data that limits generalization, or leverage multi-step optimization that incurs prohibitive inference latency. We observe that contemporary generative models natively exhibit some panoramic priors from large-scale training. However, these emergent capabilities are insufficient, as the models fundamentally fail to satisfy the rigorous topological constraints imposed by equirectangular projection (ERP). We introduce a zero-shot and optimization-free approach that resolves these constraints at inference time. Spherical RoPE replaces standard rotary position embeddings: low-frequency channels are re-parameterized as 3D Cartesian coordinates to natively encode the spherical manifold, while high-frequency channels are harmonically quantized to enforce exact periodicity. Coupled with complementary Semantic Distortion classifier-free guidance (CFG) that explicitly steers geometry, we avoid retraining and inherit the full creative breadth of state-of-the-art models. Our approach generalizes across diverse backbones and 360 generation modalities. We demonstrate this across text-to-panorama using Flux.1, Flux.2, and LTX-Video backbones, achieving competitive performance against baselines, all while remaining training-free. Project page: https://orhir.github.io/SpheRoPE

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 29 2

Adaptive Detection of Fast Moving Celestial Objects Using a Mixture of Experts and Physical-Inspired Neural Network

Fast moving celestial objects are characterized by velocities across the celestial sphere that significantly differ from the motions of background stars. In observational images, these objects exhibit distinct shapes, contrasting with the typical appearances of stars. Depending on the observational method employed, these celestial entities may be designated as near-Earth objects or asteroids. Historically, fast moving celestial objects have been observed using ground-based telescopes, where the relative stability of stars and Earth facilitated effective image differencing techniques alongside traditional fast moving celestial object detection and classification algorithms. However, the growing prevalence of space-based telescopes, along with their diverse observational modes, produces images with different properties, rendering conventional methods less effective. This paper presents a novel algorithm for detecting fast moving celestial objects within star fields. Our approach enhances state-of-the-art fast moving celestial object detection neural networks by transforming them into physical-inspired neural networks. These neural networks leverage the point spread function of the telescope and the specific observational mode as prior information; they can directly identify moving fast moving celestial objects within star fields without requiring additional training, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional techniques. Additionally, all neural networks are integrated using the mixture of experts technique, forming a comprehensive fast moving celestial object detection algorithm. We have evaluated our algorithm using simulated observational data that mimics various observations carried out by space based telescope scenarios and real observation images. Results demonstrate that our method effectively detects fast moving celestial objects across different observational modes.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 10, 2025

Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecasting

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

  • 14 authors
·
Apr 19

AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learning

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 25, 2023

DreamSat: Towards a General 3D Model for Novel View Synthesis of Space Objects

Novel view synthesis (NVS) enables to generate new images of a scene or convert a set of 2D images into a comprehensive 3D model. In the context of Space Domain Awareness, since space is becoming increasingly congested, NVS can accurately map space objects and debris, improving the safety and efficiency of space operations. Similarly, in Rendezvous and Proximity Operations missions, 3D models can provide details about a target object's shape, size, and orientation, allowing for better planning and prediction of the target's behavior. In this work, we explore the generalization abilities of these reconstruction techniques, aiming to avoid the necessity of retraining for each new scene, by presenting a novel approach to 3D spacecraft reconstruction from single-view images, DreamSat, by fine-tuning the Zero123 XL, a state-of-the-art single-view reconstruction model, on a high-quality dataset of 190 high-quality spacecraft models and integrating it into the DreamGaussian framework. We demonstrate consistent improvements in reconstruction quality across multiple metrics, including Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) score (+0.33%), Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) (+2.53%), Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) (+2.38%), and Learned Perceptual Image Patch Similarity (LPIPS) (+0.16%) on a test set of 30 previously unseen spacecraft images. Our method addresses the lack of domain-specific 3D reconstruction tools in the space industry by leveraging state-of-the-art diffusion models and 3D Gaussian splatting techniques. This approach maintains the efficiency of the DreamGaussian framework while enhancing the accuracy and detail of spacecraft reconstructions. The code for this work can be accessed on GitHub (https://github.com/ARCLab-MIT/space-nvs).

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024

VESTA: Visual Exploration with Statistical Tool Agents

Fitting quantitative models to data is a central step in scientific workflows, yet it remains one of the least automated. Recent agent-based systems leverage language and vision-language models (VLMs) to iteratively propose and refine statistical models, but these systems struggle on more challenging modeling tasks. To address these limitations, we introduce VESTA: Visual Exploration with Statistical Tool Agents, a framework that equips VLMs with a dynamically growing exploration toolkit to guide model refinement through data transformations, hypothesis-driven visualizations, and robust statistical tests. Unlike prior systems that rely on iterative critique alone, VESTA actively explores data before and during refinement by selecting or creating diagnostic tools, which accumulate in the model's context and can be reused later. We evaluate VESTA against established baselines in three toolkit configurations: no tools, static expert-written tools, and dynamic model-written tools. To support this evaluation, we introduce DAWN (Dataset for Automated Workflows and Numerical Modeling), a benchmark targeting distribution fitting and time series modeling with varying difficulty tiers, and culminating in real-world astronomy tasks including modeling initial mass functions and gravitational-wave chirp signals. We find that VESTA's dynamic tool creation outperforms prior agentic pipelines, with the largest gains on complex and domain-specific tasks. We further show that dynamically generated tools are substantially more sophisticated than those produced by existing visual tool-creation systems, covering more diagnostic categories per function and strongly preferring visual outputs that the VLM critic can reason over directly.

  • 9 authors
·
May 28

Stereophotoclinometry Revisited

Image-based surface reconstruction and characterization is crucial for missions to small celestial bodies, as it informs mission planning, navigation, and scientific analysis. However, current state-of-the-practice methods, such as stereophotoclinometry (SPC), rely heavily on human-in-the-loop verification and high-fidelity a priori information. This paper proposes Photoclinometry-from-Motion (PhoMo), a novel framework that incorporates photoclinometry techniques into a keypoint-based structure-from-motion (SfM) system to estimate the surface normal and albedo at detected landmarks to improve autonomous surface and shape characterization of small celestial bodies from in-situ imagery. In contrast to SPC, we forego the expensive maplet estimation step and instead use dense keypoint measurements and correspondences from an autonomous keypoint detection and matching method based on deep learning. Moreover, we develop a factor graph-based approach allowing for simultaneous optimization of the spacecraft's pose, landmark positions, Sun-relative direction, and surface normals and albedos via fusion of Sun vector measurements and image keypoint measurements. The proposed framework is validated on real imagery taken by the Dawn mission to the asteroid 4 Vesta and the minor planet 1 Ceres and compared against an SPC reconstruction, where we demonstrate superior rendering performance compared to an SPC solution and precise alignment to a stereophotogrammetry (SPG) solution without relying on any a priori camera pose and topography information or humans-in-the-loop.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 11, 2025

The Radio Sky at Meter Wavelengths: m-Mode Analysis Imaging with the Owens Valley Long Wavelength Array

A host of new low-frequency radio telescopes seek to measure the 21-cm transition of neutral hydrogen from the early universe. These telescopes have the potential to directly probe star and galaxy formation at redshifts 20 gtrsim z gtrsim 7, but are limited by the dynamic range they can achieve against foreground sources of low-frequency radio emission. Consequently, there is a growing demand for modern, high-fidelity maps of the sky at frequencies below 200 MHz for use in foreground modeling and removal. We describe a new widefield imaging technique for drift-scanning interferometers, Tikhonov-regularized m-mode analysis imaging. This technique constructs images of the entire sky in a single synthesis imaging step with exact treatment of widefield effects. We describe how the CLEAN algorithm can be adapted to deconvolve maps generated by m-mode analysis imaging. We demonstrate Tikhonov-regularized m-mode analysis imaging using the Owens Valley Long Wavelength Array (OVRO-LWA) by generating 8 new maps of the sky north of δ=-30^circ with 15 arcmin angular resolution, at frequencies evenly spaced between 36.528 MHz and 73.152 MHz, and sim800 mJy/beam thermal noise. These maps are a 10-fold improvement in angular resolution over existing full-sky maps at comparable frequencies, which have angular resolutions ge 2^circ. Each map is constructed exclusively from interferometric observations and does not represent the globally averaged sky brightness. Future improvements will incorporate total power radiometry, improved thermal noise, and improved angular resolution -- due to the planned expansion of the OVRO-LWA to 2.6 km baselines. These maps serve as a first step on the path to the use of more sophisticated foreground filters in 21-cm cosmology incorporating the measured angular and frequency structure of all foreground contaminants.

  • 20 authors
·
Oct 25, 2017

LaDCast: A Latent Diffusion Model for Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 10, 2025

Beyond monoculture: Polydisperse moment methods for sub-stellar atmosphere cloud microphysics II. A three-moment gamma distribution formulation for GCM applications

Context. Understanding how the shape of cloud particle size distributions affects the atmospheric properties of sub-stellar atmospheres is a key area to explore, particularly in the JWST era of broad wavelength coverage, where observations are sensitive to particle size distributions. It is therefore important to elucidate how underlying cloud microphysical processes influence the size distribution, in order to better understand how clouds affect observed atmospheric properties. Aims. In this follow-up paper, we aim to extend our sub-stellar atmosphere microphysical cloud formation framework from Paper I to include effects of assuming a polydisperse gamma particle size distribution, requiring a three-moment solution set of equations. Methods. We develop a three-moment framework for sub-stellar mineral cloud particle microphysical nucleation, condensation, evaporation and collisional growth assuming a gamma distribution. As in the previous paper, we demonstrate the effects of polydispersity using a simple one-dimensional Y-dwarf KCl cloud formation scenario, and compare the results with the monodisperse case. Results. Our three-moment scheme provides a generalised framework applicable to any size distribution with a defined moment generation expression. In our test case, we show that the gamma distribution evolves with altitude, initially broad at the cloud base and narrowing at lower pressures. We find that differences between the gamma and monodisperse cloud structures can be significant, depending on the surface gravity of the atmosphere. Conclusions. We present a self-consistent framework for including the effects of polydispersity for sub-stellar microphysical cloud studies using the moment method.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17, 2025

A Space-Time Transformer for Precipitation Forecasting

Meteorological agencies around the world rely on real-time flood guidance to issue live-saving advisories and warnings. For decades traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been state-of-the-art for precipitation forecasting. However, physically-parameterized models suffer from a few core limitations: first, solving PDEs to resolve atmospheric dynamics is computationally demanding, and second, these methods degrade in performance at nowcasting timescales (i.e., 0-4 hour lead-times). Motivated by these shortcomings, recent work proposes AI-weather prediction (AI-WP) alternatives that learn to emulate analysis data with neural networks. While these data-driven approaches have enjoyed enormous success across diverse spatial and temporal resolutions, applications of video-understanding architectures for weather forecasting remain underexplored. To address these gaps, we propose SaTformer: a video transformer built on full space-time attention that skillfully forecasts extreme precipitation from satellite radiances. Along with our novel architecture, we introduce techniques to tame long-tailed precipitation datasets. Namely, we reformulate precipitation regression into a classification problem, and employ a class-weighted loss to address label imbalances. Our model scored first place on the NeurIPS Weather4Cast 2025 Cumulative Rainfall challenge. Code and model weights are available: https://github.com/leharris3/satformer

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 14, 2025

AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.

  • 14 authors
·
May 19

WeatherGS: 3D Scene Reconstruction in Adverse Weather Conditions via Gaussian Splatting

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has gained significant attention for 3D scene reconstruction, but still suffers from complex outdoor environments, especially under adverse weather. This is because 3DGS treats the artifacts caused by adverse weather as part of the scene and will directly reconstruct them, largely reducing the clarity of the reconstructed scene. To address this challenge, we propose WeatherGS, a 3DGS-based framework for reconstructing clear scenes from multi-view images under different weather conditions. Specifically, we explicitly categorize the multi-weather artifacts into the dense particles and lens occlusions that have very different characters, in which the former are caused by snowflakes and raindrops in the air, and the latter are raised by the precipitation on the camera lens. In light of this, we propose a dense-to-sparse preprocess strategy, which sequentially removes the dense particles by an Atmospheric Effect Filter (AEF) and then extracts the relatively sparse occlusion masks with a Lens Effect Detector (LED). Finally, we train a set of 3D Gaussians by the processed images and generated masks for excluding occluded areas, and accurately recover the underlying clear scene by Gaussian splatting. We conduct a diverse and challenging benchmark to facilitate the evaluation of 3D reconstruction under complex weather scenarios. Extensive experiments on this benchmark demonstrate that our WeatherGS consistently produces high-quality, clean scenes across various weather scenarios, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. See project page:https://jumponthemoon.github.io/weather-gs.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 25, 2024 1

Sat3DGen: Comprehensive Street-Level 3D Scene Generation from Single Satellite Image

Generating a street-level 3D scene from a single satellite image is a crucial yet challenging task. Current methods present a stark trade-off: geometry-colorization models achieve high geometric fidelity but are typically building-focused and lack semantic diversity. In contrast, proxy-based models use feed-forward image-to-3D frameworks to generate holistic scenes by jointly learning geometry and texture, a process that yields rich content but coarse and unstable geometry. We attribute these geometric failures to the extreme viewpoint gap and sparse, inconsistent supervision inherent in satellite-to-street data. We introduce Sat3DGen to address these fundamental challenges, which embodies a geometry-first methodology. This methodology enhances the feed-forward paradigm by integrating novel geometric constraints with a perspective-view training strategy, explicitly countering the primary sources of geometric error. This geometry-centric strategy yields a dramatic leap in both 3D accuracy and photorealism. For validation, we first constructed a new benchmark by pairing the VIGOR-OOD test set with high-resolution DSM data. On this benchmark, our method improves geometric RMSE from 6.76m to 5.20m. Crucially, this geometric leap also boosts photorealism, reducing the Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) from sim40 to 19 against the leading method, Sat2Density++, despite using no extra tailored image-quality modules. We demonstrate the versatility of our high-quality 3D assets through diverse downstream applications, including semantic-map-to-3D synthesis, multi-camera video generation, large-scale meshing, and unsupervised single-image Digital Surface Model (DSM) estimation. The code has been released on https://github.com/qianmingduowan/Sat3DGen.

HY-World 2.0: A Multi-Modal World Model for Reconstructing, Generating, and Simulating 3D Worlds

We introduce HY-World 2.0, a multi-modal world model framework that advances our prior project HY-World 1.0. HY-World 2.0 accommodates diverse input modalities, including text prompts, single-view images, multi-view images, and videos, and produces 3D world representations. With text or single-view image inputs, the model performs world generation, synthesizing high-fidelity, navigable 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) scenes. This is achieved through a four-stage method: a) Panorama Generation with HY-Pano 2.0, b) Trajectory Planning with WorldNav, c) World Expansion with WorldStereo 2.0, and d) World Composition with WorldMirror 2.0. Specifically, we introduce key innovations to enhance panorama fidelity, enable 3D scene understanding and planning, and upgrade WorldStereo, our keyframe-based view generation model with consistent memory. We also upgrade WorldMirror, a feed-forward model for universal 3D prediction, by refining model architecture and learning strategy, enabling world reconstruction from multi-view images or videos. Also, we introduce WorldLens, a high-performance 3DGS rendering platform featuring a flexible engine-agnostic architecture, automatic IBL lighting, efficient collision detection, and training-rendering co-design, enabling interactive exploration of 3D worlds with character support. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HY-World 2.0 achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmarks among open-source approaches, delivering results comparable to the closed-source model Marble. We release all model weights, code, and technical details to facilitate reproducibility and support further research on 3D world models.

  • 45 authors
·
Apr 14 8

Interpretable structural model error discovery from sparse assimilation increments using spectral bias-reduced neural networks: A quasi-geostrophic turbulence test case

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2023

AstroM^3: A self-supervised multimodal model for astronomy

While machine-learned models are now routinely employed to facilitate astronomical inquiry, model inputs tend to be limited to a primary data source (namely images or time series) and, in the more advanced approaches, some metadata. Yet with the growing use of wide-field, multiplexed observational resources, individual sources of interest often have a broad range of observational modes available. Here we construct an astronomical multimodal dataset and propose AstroM^3, a self-supervised pre-training approach that enables a model to learn from multiple modalities simultaneously. Specifically, we extend the CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model to a trimodal setting, allowing the integration of time-series photometry data, spectra, and astrophysical metadata. In a fine-tuning supervised setting, our results demonstrate that CLIP pre-training improves classification performance for time-series photometry, where accuracy increases from 84.6% to 91.5%. Furthermore, CLIP boosts classification accuracy by up to 12.6% when the availability of labeled data is limited, showing the effectiveness of leveraging larger corpora of unlabeled data. In addition to fine-tuned classification, we can use the trained model in other downstream tasks that are not explicitly contemplated during the construction of the self-supervised model. In particular we show the efficacy of using the learned embeddings for misclassifications identification, similarity search, and anomaly detection. One surprising highlight is the "rediscovery" of Mira subtypes and two Rotational variable subclasses using manifold learning and dimension reduction algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first construction of an n>2 mode model in astronomy. Extensions to n>3 modes is naturally anticipated with this approach.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 13, 2024

SkyReconNet: A Cross-Resolution Contextual Integration Framework for Inpainting with Application to Enhanced CMB Map Reconstruction

We introduce a novel neural network, SkyReconNet, which combines the expanded receptive fields of dilated convolutional layers along with standard convolutions, to capture both the global and local features for reconstructing the missing information in an image. We implement our network to inpaint the masked regions in a full-sky Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) map. Inpainting CMB maps is a particularly formidable challenge when dealing with extensive and irregular masks, such as galactic masks which can obscure substantial fractions of the sky. The hybrid design of SkyReconNet leverages the strengths of standard and dilated convolutions to accurately predict CMB fluctuations in the masked regions, by effectively utilizing the information from surrounding unmasked areas. During training, the network optimizes its weights by minimizing a composite loss function that combines the Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) and mean squared error (MSE). SSIM preserves the essential structural features of the CMB, ensuring an accurate and coherent reconstruction of the missing CMB fluctuations, while MSE minimizes the pixel-wise deviations, enhancing the overall accuracy of the predictions. The predicted CMB maps and their corresponding angular power spectra align closely with the targets, achieving the performance limited only by the fundamental uncertainty of cosmic variance. The network's generic architecture enables application to other physics-based challenges involving data with missing or defective pixels, systematic artefacts etc. Our results demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by large irregular masks, offering a significant inpainting tool not only for CMB analyses but also for image-based experiments across disciplines where such data imperfections are prevalent.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 10, 2025

Learning Accurate Storm-Scale Evolution from Observations

Accurate short-term prediction of clouds and precipitation is critical for severe weather warnings, aviation safety, and renewable energy operations. Forecasts at this timescale are provided by numerical weather models and extrapolation methods, both of which have limitations. Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models provide skillful forecasts at these scales but require significant modeling expertise and computational infrastructure, which limits their accessibility. Extrapolation-based methods are computationally lightweight but degrade rapidly beyond 1-2 hours. This presents an opportunity for data-driven forecasting directly from observations using geostationary satellites and ground-based radar, which provide high-frequency, high-resolution observations that capture mesoscale atmospheric evolution. We introduce Stormscope, a family of transformer-based generative diffusion models trained on high-resolution, multi-band geostationary satellite imagery and ground-based weather radar over the continental United States. Stormscope produces forecasts at a temporal resolution of 10 minutes and 6 kilometer spatial resolution, which are competitive with state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP models for lead times up to 6 hours. Its generative architecture enables large ensemble forecasts of explicit mesoscale dynamics for robust uncertainty quantification. Evaluated against extrapolation methods and operational mesoscale NWP models, Stormscope achieves leading performance on standard deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics across forecast horizons from 1 to 6 hours. As Stormscope relies on globally available satellite observations (and radar where available), it offers a pathway to extend skillful mesoscale forecasting to oceanic regions and countries without strong operational mesoscale modeling programs.

  • 13 authors
·
Jan 23

Representing the Surface Ocean in ECMWF's data-driven forecasting system AIFS

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

  • 25 authors
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Apr 27

WeatherEdit: Controllable Weather Editing with 4D Gaussian Field

In this work, we present WeatherEdit, a novel weather editing pipeline for generating realistic weather effects with controllable types and severity in 3D scenes. Our approach is structured into two key components: weather background editing and weather particle construction. For weather background editing, we introduce an all-in-one adapter that integrates multiple weather styles into a single pretrained diffusion model, enabling the generation of diverse weather effects in 2D image backgrounds. During inference, we design a Temporal-View (TV-) attention mechanism that follows a specific order to aggregate temporal and spatial information, ensuring consistent editing across multi-frame and multi-view images. To construct the weather particles, we first reconstruct a 3D scene using the edited images and then introduce a dynamic 4D Gaussian field to generate snowflakes, raindrops and fog in the scene. The attributes and dynamics of these particles are precisely controlled through physical-based modelling and simulation, ensuring realistic weather representation and flexible severity adjustments. Finally, we integrate the 4D Gaussian field with the 3D scene to render consistent and highly realistic weather effects. Experiments on multiple driving datasets demonstrate that WeatherEdit can generate diverse weather effects with controllable condition severity, highlighting its potential for autonomous driving simulation in adverse weather. See project page: https://jumponthemoon.github.io/w-edit

  • 4 authors
·
May 26, 2025

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

  • 10 authors
·
May 25, 2019

Sphere Retraction Normalizations

Residual connections are the de facto mechanism for training deep neural networks stably. Geodesic Normalization (GeoNorm) recasts them on a Riemannian manifold, orthogonalizing each layer output against the current hidden state and applying the resulting update through the Riemannian exponential map. Every hidden state thus keeps a constant ell_{2}-norm, confining the residual stream to a hypersphere. The exponential map, however, is only one member of a broad family of retraction maps. We show that on the hypersphere this entire family collapses to a single scalar design choice. What distinguishes one retraction from another is only how the magnitude of an update is converted into a rotation angle within the plane spanned by the hidden state and the update. This view places Euclidean residual connections and GeoNorm in one framework. Instantiating it with the metric projection retraction and the Cayley retraction yields Proj-SpheretNorm and Cay-SpheretNorm, which are exactly norm-preserving yet require only algebraic operations. Both prove to be members of a one-parameter family of angular retractions, p-SpheretNorm, whose rotation angle saturates rather than growing without bound. The two methods above are recovered exactly at p = 1 and p = 2, while the identity map and GeoNorm arise only as limits at either end. On nanoGPT, all three methods outperform existing lightweight deep connection schemes, and the best validation loss is attained at finite p, indicating that the exponential map is not the preferred retraction for spherical residual streams but merely one end of a spectrum.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 1

Real-time Photorealistic Dynamic Scene Representation and Rendering with 4D Gaussian Splatting

Reconstructing dynamic 3D scenes from 2D images and generating diverse views over time is challenging due to scene complexity and temporal dynamics. Despite advancements in neural implicit models, limitations persist: (i) Inadequate Scene Structure: Existing methods struggle to reveal the spatial and temporal structure of dynamic scenes from directly learning the complex 6D plenoptic function. (ii) Scaling Deformation Modeling: Explicitly modeling scene element deformation becomes impractical for complex dynamics. To address these issues, we consider the spacetime as an entirety and propose to approximate the underlying spatio-temporal 4D volume of a dynamic scene by optimizing a collection of 4D primitives, with explicit geometry and appearance modeling. Learning to optimize the 4D primitives enables us to synthesize novel views at any desired time with our tailored rendering routine. Our model is conceptually simple, consisting of a 4D Gaussian parameterized by anisotropic ellipses that can rotate arbitrarily in space and time, as well as view-dependent and time-evolved appearance represented by the coefficient of 4D spherindrical harmonics. This approach offers simplicity, flexibility for variable-length video and end-to-end training, and efficient real-time rendering, making it suitable for capturing complex dynamic scene motions. Experiments across various benchmarks, including monocular and multi-view scenarios, demonstrate our 4DGS model's superior visual quality and efficiency.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 16, 2023

EarthCrafter: Scalable 3D Earth Generation via Dual-Sparse Latent Diffusion

Despite the remarkable developments achieved by recent 3D generation works, scaling these methods to geographic extents, such as modeling thousands of square kilometers of Earth's surface, remains an open challenge. We address this through a dual innovation in data infrastructure and model architecture. First, we introduce Aerial-Earth3D, the largest 3D aerial dataset to date, consisting of 50k curated scenes (each measuring 600m x 600m) captured across the U.S. mainland, comprising 45M multi-view Google Earth frames. Each scene provides pose-annotated multi-view images, depth maps, normals, semantic segmentation, and camera poses, with explicit quality control to ensure terrain diversity. Building on this foundation, we propose EarthCrafter, a tailored framework for large-scale 3D Earth generation via sparse-decoupled latent diffusion. Our architecture separates structural and textural generation: 1) Dual sparse 3D-VAEs compress high-resolution geometric voxels and textural 2D Gaussian Splats (2DGS) into compact latent spaces, largely alleviating the costly computation suffering from vast geographic scales while preserving critical information. 2) We propose condition-aware flow matching models trained on mixed inputs (semantics, images, or neither) to flexibly model latent geometry and texture features independently. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EarthCrafter performs substantially better in extremely large-scale generation. The framework further supports versatile applications, from semantic-guided urban layout generation to unconditional terrain synthesis, while maintaining geographic plausibility through our rich data priors from Aerial-Earth3D. Our project page is available at https://whiteinblue.github.io/earthcrafter/

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 22, 2025 2

Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

  • 16 authors
·
Aug 6, 2024

SkySense: A Multi-Modal Remote Sensing Foundation Model Towards Universal Interpretation for Earth Observation Imagery

Prior studies on Remote Sensing Foundation Model (RSFM) reveal immense potential towards a generic model for Earth Observation. Nevertheless, these works primarily focus on a single modality without temporal and geo-context modeling, hampering their capabilities for diverse tasks. In this study, we present SkySense, a generic billion-scale model, pre-trained on a curated multi-modal Remote Sensing Imagery (RSI) dataset with 21.5 million temporal sequences. SkySense incorporates a factorized multi-modal spatiotemporal encoder taking temporal sequences of optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data as input. This encoder is pre-trained by our proposed Multi-Granularity Contrastive Learning to learn representations across different modal and spatial granularities. To further enhance the RSI representations by the geo-context clue, we introduce Geo-Context Prototype Learning to learn region-aware prototypes upon RSI's multi-modal spatiotemporal features. To our best knowledge, SkySense is the largest Multi-Modal RSFM to date, whose modules can be flexibly combined or used individually to accommodate various tasks. It demonstrates remarkable generalization capabilities on a thorough evaluation encompassing 16 datasets over 7 tasks, from single- to multi-modal, static to temporal, and classification to localization. SkySense surpasses 18 recent RSFMs in all test scenarios. Specifically, it outperforms the latest models such as GFM, SatLas and Scale-MAE by a large margin, i.e., 2.76%, 3.67% and 3.61% on average respectively. We will release the pre-trained weights to facilitate future research and Earth Observation applications.

  • 16 authors
·
Dec 15, 2023

GeoGen: Geometry-Aware Generative Modeling via Signed Distance Functions

We introduce a new generative approach for synthesizing 3D geometry and images from single-view collections. Most existing approaches predict volumetric density to render multi-view consistent images. By employing volumetric rendering using neural radiance fields, they inherit a key limitation: the generated geometry is noisy and unconstrained, limiting the quality and utility of the output meshes. To address this issue, we propose GeoGen, a new SDF-based 3D generative model trained in an end-to-end manner. Initially, we reinterpret the volumetric density as a Signed Distance Function (SDF). This allows us to introduce useful priors to generate valid meshes. However, those priors prevent the generative model from learning details, limiting the applicability of the method to real-world scenarios. To alleviate that problem, we make the transformation learnable and constrain the rendered depth map to be consistent with the zero-level set of the SDF. Through the lens of adversarial training, we encourage the network to produce higher fidelity details on the output meshes. For evaluation, we introduce a synthetic dataset of human avatars captured from 360-degree camera angles, to overcome the challenges presented by real-world datasets, which often lack 3D consistency and do not cover all camera angles. Our experiments on multiple datasets show that GeoGen produces visually and quantitatively better geometry than the previous generative models based on neural radiance fields.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 6, 2024

A Comparative Study on Generative Models for High Resolution Solar Observation Imaging

Solar activity is one of the main drivers of variability in our solar system and the key source of space weather phenomena that affect Earth and near Earth space. The extensive record of high resolution extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offers an unprecedented, very large dataset of solar images. In this work, we make use of this comprehensive dataset to investigate capabilities of current state-of-the-art generative models to accurately capture the data distribution behind the observed solar activity states. Starting from StyleGAN-based methods, we uncover severe deficits of this model family in handling fine-scale details of solar images when training on high resolution samples, contrary to training on natural face images. When switching to the diffusion based generative model family, we observe strong improvements of fine-scale detail generation. For the GAN family, we are able to achieve similar improvements in fine-scale generation when turning to ProjectedGANs, which uses multi-scale discriminators with a pre-trained frozen feature extractor. We conduct ablation studies to clarify mechanisms responsible for proper fine-scale handling. Using distributed training on supercomputers, we are able to train generative models for up to 1024x1024 resolution that produce high quality samples indistinguishable to human experts, as suggested by the evaluation we conduct. We make all code, models and workflows used in this study publicly available at https://github.com/SLAMPAI/generative-models-for-highres-solar-images.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 14, 2023

VI-Net: Boosting Category-level 6D Object Pose Estimation via Learning Decoupled Rotations on the Spherical Representations

Rotation estimation of high precision from an RGB-D object observation is a huge challenge in 6D object pose estimation, due to the difficulty of learning in the non-linear space of SO(3). In this paper, we propose a novel rotation estimation network, termed as VI-Net, to make the task easier by decoupling the rotation as the combination of a viewpoint rotation and an in-plane rotation. More specifically, VI-Net bases the feature learning on the sphere with two individual branches for the estimates of two factorized rotations, where a V-Branch is employed to learn the viewpoint rotation via binary classification on the spherical signals, while another I-Branch is used to estimate the in-plane rotation by transforming the signals to view from the zenith direction. To process the spherical signals, a Spherical Feature Pyramid Network is constructed based on a novel design of SPAtial Spherical Convolution (SPA-SConv), which settles the boundary problem of spherical signals via feature padding and realizesviewpoint-equivariant feature extraction by symmetric convolutional operations. We apply the proposed VI-Net to the challenging task of category-level 6D object pose estimation for predicting the poses of unknown objects without available CAD models; experiments on the benchmarking datasets confirm the efficacy of our method, which outperforms the existing ones with a large margin in the regime of high precision.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 19, 2023

Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models

Operational forecasting of the ionosphere remains a critical space weather challenge due to sparse observations, complex coupling across geospatial layers, and a growing need for timely, accurate predictions that support Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), communications, aviation safety, as well as satellite operations. As part of the 2025 NASA Heliolab, we present a curated, open-access dataset that integrates diverse ionospheric and heliospheric measurements into a coherent, machine learning-ready structure, designed specifically to support next-generation forecasting models and address gaps in current operational frameworks. Our workflow integrates a large selection of data sources comprising Solar Dynamic Observatory data, solar irradiance indices (F10.7), solar wind parameters (velocity and interplanetary magnetic field), geomagnetic activity indices (Kp, AE, SYM-H), and NASA JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). We also implement geospatially sparse data such as the TEC derived from the World-Wide GNSS Receiver Network and crowdsourced Android smartphone measurements. This novel heterogeneous dataset is temporally and spatially aligned into a single, modular data structure that supports both physical and data-driven modeling. Leveraging this dataset, we train and benchmark several spatiotemporal machine learning architectures for forecasting vertical TEC under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. This work presents an extensive dataset and modeling pipeline that enables exploration of not only ionospheric dynamics but also broader Sun-Earth interactions, supporting both scientific inquiry and operational forecasting efforts.

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

A Controlled Visual-Backbone Benchmark for Multimodal Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Sky-image irradiance studies often compare forecasting systems in which the image encoder, temporal model, fusion block, target definition, and training recipe all change together. We use a narrower protocol: the multimodal forecasting pipeline is fixed, and only the visual backbone is varied. The shared setup keeps preprocessing, clear-sky-index normalization, weather-history encoding, fusion, regression head, loss, optimizer schedule, seed, and chronological split policy unchanged. We compare ConvNeXt, Swin Transformer, VMamba, Spatial Mamba, and MambaVision backbones for 10min-ahead forecasting on Folsom and a strict matched NREL split. Forecast skill is measured against clear-sky-index smart persistence, and temporal-only rows are reported as weather-history diagnostics rather than as the main ranking criterion. On the Folsom strict split, all evaluated visual-backbone runs improve over smart persistence. In the evaluated single-seed strict runs, VMamba Small and Swin Base reach matched Folsom RMSE values of 65.39 W/m^2 and 65.50 W/m^2; the temporal-only diagnostic reaches 69.51 W/m^2. On the 313-sample NREL strict split, smart persistence remains strongest at 17.48 W/m^2, while the lowest visual RMSE is obtained by Swin Tiny at 23.76 W/m^2. These results provide a reproducible encoder comparison under one fixed multimodal operating point rather than establishing architecture-level dominance, statistically resolved ranking, or fully optimized forecasting performance. Code available here: https://github.com/Oshadha345/irradiance_benchmark

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 25

Pixel-level modelling of group-scale strong lens CASSOWARY 19

We present the first high-precision model for the group-scale strong lensing system CASSOWARY 19 (CSWA19), utilising images from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Sixteen member galaxies identified via the red-sequence method, and the main halo, all modelled as the dual Pseudo Isothermal Elliptical profile (dPIE), are incorporated into a parametric lens model alongside an external shear field. To model the system, we adopt the PyAutoLens software package, employing a progressive search chain strategy for realizing the transition of source model from multiple S\'ersic profiles to a brightness-adaptive pixelization, which uses 1000 pixels in the source plane to reconstruct the background source corresponding to 177,144 image pixels in the image plane. Our results indicate that the total mass within the Einstein radius is M_{theta_E} approx 1.41times10^{13}M_{odot} and the average slope of the total mass density rho (r)propto r^{-gamma} is gamma=1.33 within the effective radius. This slope is shallower than those measured in galaxies and groups but is closer to those of galaxy clusters. In addition, our approach successfully resolves the two merging galaxies in the background source and yields a total magnification of mu=103.18^{+0.23}_{-0.19}, which is significantly higher than the outcomes from previous studies of CSWA19. In summary, our research demonstrates the effectiveness of the brightness-adaptive pixelization source reconstruction technique for modelling group-scale strong lensing systems. It can serve as a technical reference for future investigations into pixel-level modelling of the group- and cluster-scale strong lensing systems.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 15, 2025

GENIE: Gaussian Encoding for Neural Radiance Fields Interactive Editing

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) and Gaussian Splatting (GS) have recently transformed 3D scene representation and rendering. NeRF achieves high-fidelity novel view synthesis by learning volumetric representations through neural networks, but its implicit encoding makes editing and physical interaction challenging. In contrast, GS represents scenes as explicit collections of Gaussian primitives, enabling real-time rendering, faster training, and more intuitive manipulation. This explicit structure has made GS particularly well-suited for interactive editing and integration with physics-based simulation. In this paper, we introduce GENIE (Gaussian Encoding for Neural Radiance Fields Interactive Editing), a hybrid model that combines the photorealistic rendering quality of NeRF with the editable and structured representation of GS. Instead of using spherical harmonics for appearance modeling, we assign each Gaussian a trainable feature embedding. These embeddings are used to condition a NeRF network based on the k nearest Gaussians to each query point. To make this conditioning efficient, we introduce Ray-Traced Gaussian Proximity Search (RT-GPS), a fast nearest Gaussian search based on a modified ray-tracing pipeline. We also integrate a multi-resolution hash grid to initialize and update Gaussian features. Together, these components enable real-time, locality-aware editing: as Gaussian primitives are repositioned or modified, their interpolated influence is immediately reflected in the rendered output. By combining the strengths of implicit and explicit representations, GENIE supports intuitive scene manipulation, dynamic interaction, and compatibility with physical simulation, bridging the gap between geometry-based editing and neural rendering. The code can be found under (https://github.com/MikolajZielinski/genie)

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 4, 2025 2

Encapsulating Textual Contents into a MOC data Structure for Advanced Applications

Context. The Multi-Order Coverage map (MOC) is a widely adopted standard promoted by the International Virtual Observatory Alliance (IVOA) to support data sharing and interoperability within the Virtual Observatory (VO) ecosystem. This hierarchical data structure efficiently encodes and visualizes irregularly shaped regions of the sky, enabling applications such as cross-matching large astronomical catalogs. Aims. This study aims to explore potential enhancements to the MOC data structure by encapsulating textual descriptions and semantic embeddings into sky regions. Specifically, we introduce "Textual MOCs", in which textual content is encapsulated, and "Semantic MOCs" that transform textual content into semantic embeddings. These enhancements are designed to enable advanced operations such as similarity searches and complex queries and to integrate with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) tools. Method. We experimented with Textual MOCs by annotating detailed descriptions directly into the MOC sky regions, enriching the maps with contextual information suitable for interactive learning tools. For Semantic MOCs, we converted the textual content into semantic embeddings, numerical representations capturing textual meanings in multidimensional spaces, and stored them in high-dimensional vector databases optimized for efficient retrieval. Results. The implementation of Textual MOCs enhances user engagement by providing meaningful descriptions within sky regions. Semantic MOCs enable sophisticated query capabilities, such as similarity-based searches and context-aware data retrieval. Integration with multimodal generative AI systems allows for more accurate and contextually relevant interactions supporting both spatial, semantic and visual operations for advancing astronomical data analysis capabilities.

  • 15 authors
·
Oct 14, 2025

Post-processing Probabilistic Forecasts of the Solar Wind by Data Mining Similar Scenarios

The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty, or utilize ensemble methods which require custom calibration development. In this study, a method is developed that produces calibrated probabilistic forecasts of the solar wind speed using skew normal distributions and a novel extension of analog ensembles. In our extension, the single-value predictions from a baseline model of the next Δt days are used along with Δwindow hours of recent observations and single-value predictions to create a forecasting scenario vector that is compared against a historical database for outcomes. The baseline model used is the combined Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport-Wang Sheeley Arge (ADAPT-WSA) model and the WSA point parcel simulation, but the method is directly applicable to other deterministic models including components such as Enlil or the Heliospheric Upwind Extrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt). The approach works notably well on the benchmark of whether observations fall within the p^{th} percentile p% of the time (for p between 0 and 100). Falling back on the mean or median of the predicted distribution as a non-probabilistic prediction yields a direct improvement in root-mean-square error (RMSE) over the original WSA point parcel simulation, and is shown to beat approx 1 solar rotation recurrence for 1-5 day ahead forecasts.

  • 4 authors
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Mar 11

MetaEarth3D: Unlocking World-scale 3D Generation with Spatially Scalable Generative Modeling

Recent generative AI models have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in language and visual understanding. However, although these models can generate realistic visual content, their spatial scale remains confined to bounded environments, preventing them from capturing how geographic environments evolve across thousands of kilometers or from modeling the spatial structure of the large-scale physical world. This limitation poses a critical challenge for ultra-wide-area spatial intelligence in Earth observation and simulation, revealing a deeper gap in generative AI: progress has relied primarily on scaling model parameters and training data, while overlooking spatial scale as a core dimension of intelligence. Here, motivated by this missing dimension, we investigate spatial scale as a new scaling axis in foundation models and present MetaEarth3D, the first generative foundation model capable of spatially consistent generation at the planetary scale. Taking optical Earth observation simulation as a testbed, MetaEarth3D enables the generation of multi-level, unbounded, and diverse 3D scenes spanning large-scale terrains, medium-scale cities, and fine-grained street blocks. Built upon 10 million globally distributed real-world training images, MetaEarth3D demonstrates both strong visual realism and geospatial statistical realism. Beyond generation, MetaEarth3D serves as a generative data engine for diverse virtual environments in ultra-wide spatial intelligence. We argue that this study may help empower next-generation spatial intelligence for Earth observation.

  • 6 authors
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Apr 18

Gimbal360: Differentiable Auto-Leveling for Canonicalized 360^circ Panoramic Image Completion

Diffusion models excel at 2D outpainting, but extending them to 360^circ panoramic completion from unposed perspective images is challenging due to the geometric and topological mismatch between perspective projections and spherical panoramas. We present Gimbal360, a principled framework that explicitly bridges perspective observations and spherical panoramas. We introduce a Canonical Viewing Space that regularizes projective geometry and provides a consistent intermediate representation between the two domains. To anchor in-the-wild inputs to this space, we propose a Differentiable Auto-Leveling module that stabilizes feature orientation without requiring camera parameters at inference. Panoramic generation also introduces a topological challenge. Standard generative architectures assume a bounded Euclidean image plane, while Equirectangular Projection (ERP) panoramas exhibit intrinsic S^1 periodicity. Euclidean operations therefore break boundary continuity. We address this mismatch by enforcing topological equivariance in the latent space to preserve seamless periodic structure. To support this formulation, we introduce Horizon360, a curated large-scale dataset of gravity-aligned panoramic environments. Extensive experiments show that explicitly standardizing geometric and topological priors enables Gimbal360 to achieve state-of-the-art performance in structurally consistent 360^circ scene completion.

Orange-Team Orange Team
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Mar 23

LenghuSky-8: An 8-Year All-Sky Cloud Dataset with Star-Aware Masks and Alt-Az Calibration for Segmentation and Nowcasting

Ground-based time-domain observatories require minute-by-minute, site-scale awareness of cloud cover, yet existing all-sky datasets are short, daylight-biased, or lack astrometric calibration. We present LenghuSky-8, an eight-year (2018-2025) all-sky imaging dataset from a premier astronomical site, comprising 429,620 512 times 512 frames with 81.2% night-time coverage, star-aware cloud masks, background masks, and per-pixel altitude-azimuth (Alt-Az) calibration. For robust cloud segmentation across day, night, and lunar phases, we train a linear probe on DINOv3 local features and obtain 93.3% pm 1.1% overall accuracy on a balanced, manually labeled set of 1,111 images. Using stellar astrometry, we map each pixel to local alt-az coordinates and measure calibration uncertainties of approximately 0.37 deg at zenith and approximately 1.34 deg at 30 deg altitude, sufficient for integration with telescope schedulers. Beyond segmentation, we introduce a short-horizon nowcasting benchmark over per-pixel three-class logits (sky/cloud/contamination) with four baselines: persistence (copying the last frame), optical flow, ConvLSTM, and VideoGPT. ConvLSTM performs best but yields only limited gains over persistence, underscoring the difficulty of near-term cloud evolution. We release the dataset, calibrations, and an open-source toolkit for loading, evaluation, and scheduler-ready alt-az maps to boost research in segmentation, nowcasting, and autonomous observatory operations.

  • 12 authors
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Mar 17

AstroMLab 1: Who Wins Astronomy Jeopardy!?

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.

  • 11 authors
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Jul 15, 2024

Domain-Informed Multi-View Self-Distillation for Astronomical Light-Curve Representation Learning with JEPA

Light curves describe temporal variations in the brightness of celestial objects. Learning robust representations of light curves is essential for large-scale automatic discovery in the dynamic universe, but existing time-series foundation models often struggle with the uneven sampling, complex noise, and wide range of physical timescales that characterize astronomical observations. We propose a domain-informed representation learning framework for irregular astronomical time series with Joint-Embedding predictive architecture (JEPA), combining semantics-preserving views, uncertainty-aware tokenization, and multi-view self-distillation. The encoders are trained with multi-view self-distillation using LeJEPA regularization on the LEAVES dataset and evaluated on the StarEmbed classification benchmark. On StarEmbed, our model outperforms hand-crafted features on 15 of 16 classification metrics. In few-shot linear probing, it achieves macro-F1 scores of 42.56 pm 7.21 with one sample per class and 63.58 pm 1.20 with 100 samples per class, consistently improving over hand-crafted features. Beyond variable-star classification, the learned representation supports similarity search, parameter estimation, and photometric zero-point drift detection. We further evaluate cross-domain adaptation on 12 heterogeneous irregular time-series datasets from PYRREGULAR, where the adapted variant matches or exceeds previous state-of-the-art performance on 5 datasets, compared with at most 3 wins by any single prior baseline. These results demonstrate that domain-informed multi-view self-distillation is an effective strategy for learning representations of irregular time series, while also highlighting that successful time-series representation learning requires domain-specific inductive biases rather than a universally optimal architecture.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 25

Machine Learning-Ready Data Sets for the Analysis and Nowcasting of Atmospheric Radiation at Aviation Altitudes

Nowcasting and forecasting of the radiation environment in the Earth's lower atmosphere are critical for the safety of aircraft and spacecraft crews and passengers. Currently, this problem is addressed by employing statistical and physics-based models that take into account particle transport and precipitation. However, given the increased number of radiation measurements available to the community, it is possible to start developing data-driven approaches. We prepared Machine Learning-ready (ML-ready) datasets to nowcast the effective dose rates at aviation altitudes. The presented datasets contain 92,476 individual measurements from 589 flights obtained by the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) experiment from 2013 to 2023. The ARMAS measurements are augmented with the properties of the Geospace environment, such as solar soft X-ray and proton fluxes, solar wind properties, secondary cosmic ray neutrons, space weather indexes, and global solar activity indicators (such as daily sunspot number). ARMAS data are separated into three partitions, ensuring that (1) the data points from a single flight remain within the same partition, and (2) each partition samples the flight locations and Geospace environment conditions equally. Several versions of the datasets allow predictions based on point-in-time measurements and use up to 24 hours of Geospace parameter history. The test of the use case demonstrates a possibility of nowcasting ARMAS measurements with accuracies slightly better than the considered physics-based models. The publicly available ML-ready datasets could serve as the first step in data preparation for ML-driven nowcasting and forecasting of the radiation environment.

  • 13 authors
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Feb 5

EO-WM: A Physically Informed World Model for Probabilistic Earth Observation Forecasting

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 24 2

ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets

The search for life beyond Earth will depend on detecting faint signatures in the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets. Interpreting those signatures requires understanding the host planet's climate: the same molecule may signal life on one planet and abiotic chemistry on another. Global climate models (GCMs) provide this understanding, but individual runs can require up to millions of core-hours and substantial domain expert time. Machine-learning emulators could remove this bottleneck, but progress has been limited by the absence of a curated, multi-model exoclimate dataset. We introduce ThousandWorlds, an ML-ready benchmark for exoclimate emulation and for the broader regime of low-data, multi-simulator, parameter-to-field regression. The dataset contains approximately 1800 simulations from five GCMs, mapping eight planet parameters to 3D atmospheric fields including temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and radiation. Three nested subsets define progressively harder challenges: single-simulator regression, multi-simulator regression with complete observations, and multi-simulator regression with structured missingness. We propose two evaluation protocols: one for ranking methods, and one that measures performance relative to the disagreement between GCMs themselves. We evaluate seven baselines spanning simple methods, deep learning, and Gaussian processes. GP-based methods perform best, suggesting that ThousandWorlds exposes a regime where off-the-shelf deep learning does not yet succeed. Data: https://doi.org/10.57967/hf/8695. Code: https://github.com/edstevenson/ThousandWorlds.

  • 7 authors
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Jun 15

A Survey on 3D Gaussian Splatting

3D Gaussian splatting (GS) has recently emerged as a transformative technique in the realm of explicit radiance field and computer graphics. This innovative approach, characterized by the utilization of millions of learnable 3D Gaussians, represents a significant departure from mainstream neural radiance field approaches, which predominantly use implicit, coordinate-based models to map spatial coordinates to pixel values. 3D GS, with its explicit scene representation and differentiable rendering algorithm, not only promises real-time rendering capability but also introduces unprecedented levels of editability. This positions 3D GS as a potential game-changer for the next generation of 3D reconstruction and representation. In the present paper, we provide the first systematic overview of the recent developments and critical contributions in the domain of 3D GS. We begin with a detailed exploration of the underlying principles and the driving forces behind the emergence of 3D GS, laying the groundwork for understanding its significance. A focal point of our discussion is the practical applicability of 3D GS. By enabling unprecedented rendering speed, 3D GS opens up a plethora of applications, ranging from virtual reality to interactive media and beyond. This is complemented by a comparative analysis of leading 3D GS models, evaluated across various benchmark tasks to highlight their performance and practical utility. The survey concludes by identifying current challenges and suggesting potential avenues for future research in this domain. Through this survey, we aim to provide a valuable resource for both newcomers and seasoned researchers, fostering further exploration and advancement in applicable and explicit radiance field representation.

  • 2 authors
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Jan 8, 2024

VegSim: A Geospatial World Model for Scenario-Conditioned Vegetation Simulation

Vegetation monitoring under climate stress requires answering not only how it will evolve given the expected weather, but how it would respond to alternative meteorological conditions. Forecasting models return the expected vegetation state for the observed weather and cannot answer these scenario-conditioned questions, because future weather is fixed to the recorded trajectory. We present VegSim, a geospatial world model for scenario-conditioned vegetation simulation. VegSim infers a latent vegetation state from sparse satellite-derived NDVI histories, past meteorological covariates, and static spatial context, propagates it forward under future weather forcing through recurrent latent dynamics, and decodes predictive NDVI quantiles at each lead time. Because future forcing enters as a controllable input, the same trained model supports probabilistic forecasting under observed weather and conditional simulation under user-defined meteorological forcing, without supervision on scenario responses. We evaluate VegSim on GreenEarthNet across in-distribution data and spatial, temporal, and joint spatial-temporal shift, where it achieves strong point and probabilistic accuracy against time series and Earth observation forecasting baselines while using a compact architecture. We then simulate vegetation responses across Europe under four meteorological scenarios, and in a France summer 2022 case study, obtaining spatially coherent patterns consistent with known sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/vegsim.

  • 4 authors
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Jun 19

Can AI Dream of Unseen Galaxies? Conditional Diffusion Model for Galaxy Morphology Augmentation

Observational astronomy relies on visual feature identification to detect critical astrophysical phenomena. While machine learning (ML) increasingly automates this process, models often struggle with generalization in large-scale surveys due to the limited representativeness of labeled datasets -- whether from simulations or human annotation -- a challenge pronounced for rare yet scientifically valuable objects. To address this, we propose a conditional diffusion model to synthesize realistic galaxy images for augmenting ML training data. Leveraging the Galaxy Zoo 2 dataset which contains visual feature -- galaxy image pairs from volunteer annotation, we demonstrate that our model generates diverse, high-fidelity galaxy images closely adhere to the specified morphological feature conditions. Moreover, this model enables generative extrapolation to project well-annotated data into unseen domains and advancing rare object detection. Integrating synthesized images into ML pipelines improves performance in standard morphology classification, boosting completeness and purity by up to 30\% across key metrics. For rare object detection, using early-type galaxies with prominent dust lane features ( sim0.1\% in GZ2 dataset) as a test case, our approach doubled the number of detected instances from 352 to 872, compared to previous studies based on visual inspection. This study highlights the power of generative models to bridge gaps between scarce labeled data and the vast, uncharted parameter space of observational astronomy and sheds insight for future astrophysical foundation model developments. Our project homepage is available at https://galaxysd-webpage.streamlit.app/.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 19, 2025

Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Survey

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

  • 13 authors
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Jan 12, 2025

Water Snowline in Young Stellar Objects with Various Density Structures Using Radiative Transfer Models

Tracing the water snowline in low-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) is important because dust grain growth is promoted and the chemical composition varies at the water snowline, which influences planet formation and its properties. In protostellar envelopes, the water snowline can be estimated as a function of luminosity using a relation derived from radiative transfer models, and these predictions are consistent with observations. However, accurately estimating the water snowline in protoplanetary disks requires new relations that account for the disk structure. We present the relations between luminosity and water snowline using the dust continuum radiative transfer models with various density structures. We adopt two-dimensional density structures for an envelope-only model (Model E), an envelope+disk+cavity model (Model E+D), and a protoplanetary disk model (Model PPD). The relations between the water snowline, where T_dust = 100 K, and the total luminosity, ranging 0.1-1,000 solar luminosity, are well fitted by a power-law relation, R_snow=a * (L/L_solar)^p au. The factor a decreases with increasing disk density, while the power index p has values around 0.5 in all models. As the disk becomes denser, the water snowline forms at smaller radii even at the same luminosity, since dense dust hinders photon propagation. We also explore the effect of viscous heating on the water snowline. In Model PPD with viscous heating, the water snowline shifts outward by a few au up to 15 au, increasing the factor a and decreasing the power index p. In Model E+D with lower disk mass, the effect of viscous heating is negligible, indicating that the disk mass controls the effect. The discrepancy between our models and direct observations provides insights into the recent outburst event and the presence of a disk structure in low-mass YSOs.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 16, 2025

Atmospheric Transport Modeling of CO_2 with Neural Networks

Accurately describing the distribution of CO_2 in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO_2. More specifically, we center CO_2 input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day R^2 > 0.99), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 20, 2024

Using remotely sensed data for air pollution assessment

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 4, 2024

Olbedo: An Albedo and Shading Aerial Dataset for Large-Scale Outdoor Environments

Intrinsic image decomposition (IID) of outdoor scenes is crucial for relighting, editing, and understanding large-scale environments, but progress has been limited by the lack of real-world datasets with reliable albedo and shading supervision. We introduce Olbedo, a large-scale aerial dataset for outdoor albedo--shading decomposition in the wild. Olbedo contains 5,664 UAV images captured across four landscape types, multiple years, and diverse illumination conditions. Each view is accompanied by multi-view consistent albedo and shading maps, metric depth, surface normals, sun and sky shading components, camera poses, and, for recent flights, measured HDR sky domes. These annotations are derived from an inverse-rendering refinement pipeline over multi-view stereo reconstructions and calibrated sky illumination, together with per-pixel confidence masks. We demonstrate that Olbedo enables state-of-the-art diffusion-based IID models, originally trained on synthetic indoor data, to generalize to real outdoor imagery: fine-tuning on Olbedo significantly improves single-view outdoor albedo prediction on the MatrixCity benchmark. We further illustrate applications of Olbedo-trained models to multi-view consistent relighting of 3D assets, material editing, and scene change analysis for urban digital twins. We release the dataset, baseline models, and an evaluation protocol to support future research in outdoor intrinsic decomposition and illumination-aware aerial vision.

  • 7 authors
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Feb 24